Publications in English

Cuadernos de Investigación Económica Boliviana (CIEB) Volumen 6, Número 2

Fecha de Publicación
Autores
Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas Públicas
Versión Completa CIEB (2023) Vol. 6(2)
Cuadernos de Investigación Económica Boliviana (2023) Vol. 6(2)
Resumen

Árbitros de la presente edición:

  • PhD. Muchin Bazan Ruiz (EE.UU.) — Georgia Institute of Technology
  • PhD. Carlos Mendez (Japón) — Nagoya University
  • PhD. Rolando Gonzales Martínez (Países Bajos) — Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences
  • PhD. William Richard Sanchez Tapia (Perú) — Consejo Fiscal del Perú
  • PhD. Carlos Burga (Chile) — Universidad Católica de Chile
  • PhD. Andrés Marcelo Gutiérrez Villca (Bolivia) — Universidad Privada Boliviana
  • PhD.

Geopolitical Risk Shocks: Macroeconomic Effects in Bolivia, Chile, and Peru

Fecha de Publicación
Autores
Osmar Bolivar; Christian Huanto Quispe
Cuadernos de Investigación Económica Boliviana (2023) Vol. 6(2), 62-83
Palabras claves
Geopolitical risk
BSVAR
Inflation
interest rates
Economic Growth
commodity prices.
Geopolitical Risk Shocks: Macroeconomic Effects in Bolivia, Chile, and Peru
Resumen

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impacts of geopolitical risk shocks on Bolivia, Chile, and Peru, employing Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) models. Geopolitical risk shocks significantly raise inflation and interest rates in Chile and Peru, with food and energy inflation being the most affected, while Bolivia shows resilience, presumably due to its distinct economic framework. Commodity prices, particularly energy and agriculture, experience persistent impacts, highlighting the importance of commodity-specific dynamics.

Analyzing Fiscal Decentralization: Findings from a Quasi-Experimental Study in Municipalities

Fecha de Publicación
Autores
Alejandro Oporto Velasquez; Diego Maldonado Jover
Cuadernos de Investigación Económica Boliviana (2023) Vol. 6(2), 34-61
Palabras claves
Territorial Decentralization
Fiscal Autonomy
Health Management
Analyzing Fiscal Decentralization: Findings from a Quasi-Experimental Study in Municipalities
Resumen

This study investigates the impact of fiscal decentralization on health management at the municipal level, particularly during health emergencies. Using Bolivian municipalities as a case study, the research employs a quasi-experimental design incorporating instrumental variable (IV) models and Spatial Durbin Error Model (SDEM) regressions to analyze the effects of fiscal autonomy on health outcomes. The main finding is that increased fiscal autonomy significantly enhances health management, as evidenced by a higher detection rate of covid cases.

Machine Learning Insights into Bolivia’s Economic Downturns

Fecha de Publicación
Autores
Cesar Ramos
Cuadernos de Investigación Económica Boliviana (2023) Vol. 6(2), 5-33
Palabras claves
Business Cycles; Economic Recession; Machine Learning; Times Series.
Machine Learning Insights into Bolivia’s Economic Downturns
Resumen

This document approaches the critical need for accurate recession prediction in Bolivia by applying machine learning methodologies, specifically Logistic Regression, Random Forests, and Extreme Gradient Boosting. During the past three decades, disruptive events such as pandemics, financial crises, and geopolitical conflicts have highlighted the importance of early warning signals for anticipating economic downturns. However, forecasting recessions is complex due to the rarity of these events and the limited data available.